New Middle East likely to live in Iran’s shadow

MOST Manila Times readers, especially those concerned over the plight of the overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in the Middle East, realize that a new Middle East is emerging
as a result of the uprisings there.

The latest news that worries most Filipinos—in addition to the safety of our compatriots in the troubled Middle East countries—is the effect of the revolts on the price of petroleum products.

As the top story in our World page tells us, a British cabinet minister who knows the oil industry, UK international development minister Alan Duncan, has warned that if the Arab world deteriorates some more, the world price of crude could go up to double the record high price of $147 a barrel reached in the oil crisis of 2008.
He made the warning because that dire eventuality would make life extremely hard for the British and the other Europeans—and most of the rest of mankind.

Of course it would also sink all our hopes of continuing the growth pattern we have enjoyed during the past decade. We will have to pray harder for our wish to come true of growing by 7 percent to 8 percent this year (which some international banks say will only be 5 percent because of global problems).

We in The Times have always urged fellow Filipinos to be more eager to know about world affairs—be conversant with what’s happening out there because of our dependence on our OFW’s earnings abroad. But we also urge greater internationalism because we Filipinos do have a role to play globally. For we seem to be purveyors of a certain example of being human that foreigners who have experienced the friendship, services and tender-loving-care of Filipino doctors, nurses, engineers, information technology experts, teachers, drivers and nannies love so much.

It’s therefore a good reason to know the culture, history and current socio-political concerns of the Arabs, the Persians, the Turks, the Jews and all others who are suffering from today’s instabilities in North Africa and the Middle East.

This is why we present in today’s special report the latest analyses of STRATFOR, the global intelligence providers.
The most important items of intelligence we learn from today’s analyses are:

(1) It is most likely that Iran—whose leaders are villains as far as most of the rulers in most of the Arab countries are concerned (except the Syrians, the Hezbollah of Lebanon and the ruling party in Iraq)—will have a say in the way the new Middle East shapes up. And this why Saudi Arabia’s rulers would very much like their kingdom to form a strategic partnership with Turkey. (The whys and wherefores of this development are in all the stories in today’s special report.)

(2) Egypt’s ruling military regime—which is really still the same regime led by Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak—is trying to forge a Middle East safer from popular discontent and rebellions. For this reason, the Egyptian military is actually supporting with arms and sanctuary the rebels against Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi.

(3) Turkey, whether it likes it or not, has been pushed out of its relative distance from the problems of the Middle East. It is being called upon by the Arabs, the Americans, the Europeans (and of course Israel) to make itself a Middle East power and offset the Iranian presence.

(4) Iran will take advantage of the many opportunities for it to project its influence and power in the troubled areas of the Arab world, especially in the Persian Gulf. Its principal allies are the Arab Shiites, who are an important minority even in Saudi Arabia. The Shiites are present in the Kingdom’s province that has its oil wells. Iran is encouraging locals who are rebelling against their Arab monarchs.

Meanwhile, one of yesterday’s big news is that US President Obama has decided to settle on an ME strategy, reports Agence France-Presse, that will help old Arab friends and allies remain in power as long as they are willing to reform their governance.

This means the American president will most likely pressure the Saudis, the Bahrainis, the Kuwaitis and the other Arab leaders in the emirates to become constitutional monarchies and sheikdoms. This turns from the original Obama doctrine of not imposing American democracy on even jihadists and clerics who wish to annihilate the state of Israel. The US president’s new position is more like that of former President George Bush’s.

Ironically, of all the Arab countries, Iraq, over which America lost a lot of lives, goodwill and money, is now the only one that is a functioning electoral democracy. But it’s prime minister, sadly for the USA, is pro-Iran.